Declining violence? A new(?) era of interstate warfare

The declining violence literature is multidisciplinary, with key contributions originating in psychology, sociology, criminal justice, and political science. A subset of political scientists has contributed to discussions of declining violence by focusing on changes in warfare over time. The trend that appears to dominate this discussion relates to a decline in the frequency and magnitude of interstate wars. Observations of the decline are based on readings of empirical evidence, with varying time frames in mind. Explanations for a decline in warfare also vary. For example, some scholars draw upon assumptions underlying liberal (economic) peace theories. Such explanations identify increasing international economic interdependence and societal wealth as constraints on interstate war, especially when war threatens domestic economies. Other scholars point to the relevance of an expansion in political liberalization, high costs of war, the legitimacy of international norms and institutions, or even changes in human nature. Importantly, however, this scholarship represents only one side of a larger debate. The expectation that interstate wars are in decline does not find universal support. Moreover, there are recent examples of interstate wars involving powerful states, which pose real challenges to suggestions that interstate wars are or will decline. Among these are Russia’s war in Ukraine, the United States’ involvement in the Iran War, and the potential for these wars to expand to more fronts. Contributions to the proposed panel will explore patterns in war and explanations for these patterns. Scholars will approach the topic from diverse perspectives, including, but not limited to, historical, strategic, institutional, or structural approaches. They may employ descriptive, comparative, formal, quantitative, or mixed methodologies. Bringing together scholars working on this theme will facilitate a (re)evaluation of expectations for and explanations of warfare in the twenty-first century, with implications for multidisciplinary discussions of violence and whether or not it is in decline.