Beyond the Firm: Perceptions of (Geo)Political Risk in Times of Uncertainty

Organizations of all kinds, from businesses and investors to insurers, consultancies, public authorities and non-profits, operate today in an environment reshaped by war in Europe and the Middle East, the weakening of multilateralism in an increasingly multipolar order, weaponized economic interdependence, and a proliferation of sanctions, export controls, tariffs and industrial policies. Notions such as geopolitical risk and geoeconomic fragmentation have migrated from academic debate into boardrooms, council chambers and earnings calls. Yet we still know relatively little about how exposed actors perceive this new environment, and whether headline indices of geopolitical risk correspond to assessments made on the ground, at the level of the individual company, project or institution.
This panel invites theoretical and empirical papers investigating the perception of political and geopolitical risk in times of heightened uncertainty. Its scope encompasses the full range of actors for whom political risk is a concern: multinational corporations and smaller enterprises, investors, regional governments, non-profit institutions, and the intermediaries who create the business of risk management: from advisory firms to political risk insurers. Relevant questions include: How do different categories of actors perceive and prioritize geopolitical risks, and through which channels, increasingly digital and exposed to misinformation, does geopolitical information reach decision-makers? How do those who sell risk analysis or price risk through insurance construct and communicate their assessments, and how are these received by clients? To what extent do perceptions translate into strategies such as supply chain reconfiguration, divestment, insurance coverage, project redesign or lobbying? And how do perception gaps, between managers and analysts, headquarters and subsidiaries, or public authorities and private partners, shape outcomes?
Contributions may draw on surveys, interviews, case studies, text analysis and quantitative modelling, as well as on conceptual work refining our understanding of risk perception. Comparative research across regions, sectors and actor types is encouraged. By connecting scholarship on risk perception with the realities of organizations navigating an unstable world, the panel seeks to sharpen our understanding of how geopolitical risk is experienced and acted upon, and of what this means for governance and accountability when private assessments shape decisions of public consequence.